Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Asset Research at VanEck, said that bitcoin could rise to $500k in the current or next cycle.

VanEck model: up to $3M by 2050 if bitcoin plays a role in global trade

According to him, VanEck's long-term model suggests bitcoin could reach $3 million by 2050, if it captures a significant share of global trade, including energy markets.

Correlation with gold at highs and volatility three times greater

Sigel noted that the bottom has already formed and investors are increasingly buying on corrections. The correlation between BTC and gold is at a multi-year high. At the same time, bitcoin is roughly three times more volatile than gold, but has an advantage in mobility: gold must be physically transported between countries, whereas BTC can be sent cheaply anywhere in the world.

Quantum risk and regulatory stance

He believes quantum computing remains a real risk for bitcoin and should be addressed in the coming years, but this is not a reason to sell BTC. In Sigel's view, additional regulation is not necessary: ETFs have solved the problem of unregulated custody, and a significant portion of leverage has shifted to regulated markets.

Focus on miners and long-term energy contracts

Sigel also highlighted bitcoin miners: due to the AI boom, access to electricity has become a scarce asset for them, and some companies are already signing energy contracts for 10–20 years.