The Federal Reserve reduced its balance sheet by $4.673 billion over the week. For upcoming meetings, the market expects a pause on October 28, a 25 basis point rate increase to 4.00–4.25% on December 9, and a pause on January 27.

Williams and Jefferson Suggest Waiting for New Data

According to Williams, after the September rate hike, there is no need to rush with another move—the regulator can wait for additional macroeconomic data. Jefferson also allows for a pause following the September decision, emphasizing that further steps will depend on inflation, the labor market, and the overall state of the economy.

Logan Sees Risk of Additional 50 bp Tightening

Logan believes the September rate hike was only the first step: to bring inflation back to 2%, further tightening of at least 50 basis points may be required. The timing of possible actions will be determined by macroeconomic data and financial conditions.

Kashkari Expects Hikes in 2026 and 2027

Kashkari forecasts another rate increase in 2026 and a further one in 2027. If the economy remains strong and inflation persistent, the rate could be raised above current expectations.

Cook and Goolsbee on Inflation Factors and October Decision

Cook believes that AI could become an additional source of inflationary pressure in 2027 due to increased investment, capacity shortages, and supply chain disruptions; geopolitics and new supply shocks may require a more flexible regulatory response. Goolsbee notes that both a rate hike and a pause are possible in October—the decision will depend on new macroeconomic data.