In the US, the corporate earnings season begins on October 13. According to FactSet, the expected profit growth for S&P 500 companies in the third quarter is 29.5% year-over-year. This period is traditionally marked by increased volatility in both the stock and crypto markets.

EPS Forecasts Raised, Record Number of Positive Guidance

Over the past quarter, analysts have raised their EPS forecasts by 1.4%, while historically, estimates tend to decline ahead of earnings. Seventy-two companies have already raised their EPS guidance, compared to forty-four that have lowered theirs. The number of positive forecasts is the highest since FactSet began collecting this data in 2006.

Technology Remains the Main Profit Driver

The technology sector continues to be a key driver, with expected profit growth of about 65% year-over-year.

Goldman Sachs on AI Contribution and Capital Expenditure Growth

Goldman Sachs estimates that nearly half of S&P 500 profit growth in 2026 will be linked to investments in AI infrastructure. Major technology companies are sharply increasing capital expenditures on data centers and computing power. The main question for the market is whether these expenses can transition from investment phase to sustained productivity and profit growth.

Season Expectations and Risks

The S&P 500 could post profit growth of more than 25% for the third consecutive quarter; both companies and analysts are entering the season with noticeably more optimism than usual. Special attention will be paid to big tech, semiconductor firms, and other companies connected to AI, with a focus on margins, capital expenditures, and management forecasts for 2027. Risks include a slowdown in AI spending growth, high interest rates and bond yields, expensive energy and rising costs, as well as high expectations that are partly reflected in prices following recent S&P 500 highs.