Bitcoin (BTC) held near $86,000 on Tuesday and made another attempt to approach $87,000, while US stock indexes set new all-time highs: S&P 500 at 7,835 points (+0.8%), Nasdaq 100 at 31,312, and Nasdaq Composite at 27,683.

Liquidity at $87,000 Limits BTC; Support at $83,500

BTC/USD is trying to return to $87,000 after another failed breakout attempt on Monday. According to CoinGlass, the largest concentration of liquidity is near $87,000, with a "ladder" of sell orders extending down to $86,500, which is capping the upside. The nearest support is the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) around $83,500; this level was last traded on September 18. Material Indicators co-founder Keith Alan identified $83,555 as a key area to watch, noted the possible support test structure at $82,500, and the monthly signal invalidation threshold at $87,375; in his view, a return and successful retest of the yearly open at $87,496 would strengthen the scenario for a move above $91,540.

US Index Records Amid Softer Fed Rate Expectations

Mosaic Asset Company believes that softer expectations for Fed rate hikes in Q4 2026 could be a catalyst for further growth. However, market breadth remains near six-month lows: last week, only 25% of stocks were above their 50-day SMA, with technology companies contributing most to the gains. The Kobeissi Letter noted that since March 30, the S&P 500 has added 24%, or $71.3 trillion, in market capitalization. Such oversold conditions have occurred only once this year—in late March—and then led to a reversal, which Mosaic believes could happen again.

BTC and S&P 500 Correlation Rises to 0.51

CryptoQuant estimates a moderately positive correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 at 0.51 as of October 2, the highest level since early June.