Markets are now pricing in at least three Federal Reserve rate hikes by June 2027. Traders are almost certain the first rate increase in three years could come at the meeting set for September 16.

What the Market Expects

Right now, investors aren’t just betting on a one-off hike. Futures and derivatives are showing that multiple increases are on the table through mid-2027. The consensus for the upcoming meeting: there’s a strong chance the Fed finally pulls the trigger on its first hike in a long stretch.

Richard Clarida’s Take

Former Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida thinks the September move won’t be the only one. He says a single 0.25% hike won’t be enough to really slow inflation, so the Fed may have to go for a series of increases.

Traders are zeroed in not just on a possible September hike, but on the Fed’s longer-term rate path for 2026–2027. Any Fed commentary about the pace and scale of future hikes will be crucial for how the market recalibrates its expectations.