Bitcoin's recent rally might not have strong legs, with spot demand looking pretty weak. According to CryptoQuant, the current market setup is starting to look a lot like January–February and March 2026, when derivatives were calling the shots on price action. Analysts are flagging that this kind of move—without solid spot inflows—just doesn’t inspire much confidence.

What the analysts are saying

Experts are pointing out that spot demand is lagging, while derivatives are taking center stage. This imbalance, they say, makes the rally less reliable: when derivatives are driving most of the action, the momentum gets way more sensitive to trader sentiment and short-term swings.

Throwback to early 2026

CryptoQuant says today’s setup is eerily similar to what we saw in January–February and March 2026—periods when the derivatives market was in the driver’s seat. Back then, derivatives dominance went hand-in-hand with weak spot demand, making the rally feel shaky since there wasn’t much "real" buying on the spot side.

The key metric here is the balance between spot and derivatives activity: the less spot is involved, the less reason there is to trust the trend. Analysts are stressing that without steady spot demand, this rally looks fragile at best.