Donald Trump is privately weighing the idea of officially ending the war with Iran and pivoting to economic pressure as the main tool against Tehran. This doesn’t mean a full military pullback: the US is keeping around 50,000 troops and 19 warships in the region to allow for a rapid escalation if needed. Meanwhile, Washington is extending its military deployments in the Middle East.

What’s Next for the Military Campaign?

Trump has already been presented with several options, including ramping up airstrikes and using ground forces to seize Iranian islands near the Strait of Hormuz. Even with the talk of economic pressure, these military scenarios are still on the table, and the current US presence is meant to keep all options open.

Regional Tensions and Risks

Iran continues to launch missile and drone attacks on US and allied targets in the Persian Gulf. Just today, Kuwait sounded air raid alarms again and reported intercepting incoming missiles and drones. Through Oman, Tehran warned the US that there would be a "massive response" if Israel assaults a key Hezbollah position in southern Lebanon, where IRGC members are reportedly present. US-Iran talks haven’t made any real progress, even after a recent lull in hostilities.

Diplomacy and Economic Pressure

Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff has been holding secret meetings with the UAE’s national security adviser, discussing ways to ramp up pressure on Iran, restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and tighten the economic blockade. The US is prepping new measures against Tehran, potentially targeting banks, aviation, shipping, and digital assets. Iran, for its part, has expanded its blacklist of ships at risk of seizure in the Strait of Hormuz—there are now 56 vessels on the list. Some in the administration want to avoid a major escalation before the US midterms on November 3, but after that, the campaign could heat up fast.