Polymarket and Kalshi have assessed the risk of a US government shutdown by December 12 at 33% and about 38%, respectively. The current temporary funding expires on December 11, and Congress has yet to reach an agreement.

Democrats consider blocking the budget over Iran war funding

According to the report, Democrats are prepared to block the new budget to put pressure on Donald Trump and seek an end to funding for the war with Iran.

Trump's proposal to raise defense budget to $1.5 trillion faces opposition

The situation is further complicated by Trump’s initiative to increase US defense spending to $1.5 trillion, a move opposed by Democrats.

Shutdown possible if no compromise is reached

If a compromise is not found, the federal government may again partially suspend operations. The current temporary funding expires on December 11, and no agreement has been reached so far.