Morgan Stanley has dropped a fresh outlook on China’s consumer AI sector: by 2030, monetizable revenue could hit 294 billion yuan (about $44 billion). The findings come from their latest report, “Consumer AI in China: Beyond the Chatbot Battle.”

Market Growth Forecast

The bank projects that China’s consumer AI market, in terms of revenue that can actually be monetized from end users and consumer services, will jump from 54 billion yuan in 2026 to 294 billion yuan by 2030. That’s a massive leap for just four years.

Why China’s Out in Front

Morgan Stanley’s analysts say China is leading the global consumer AI race thanks to its advanced mobile internet network and apps that are woven into daily life. This tight ecosystem lets AI features get rolled out and monetized much faster across the mainstream market.

From Chatbots to Real Transactions

The report highlights a shift “from chatbots to transactions”: consumer AI is moving beyond simple conversations and getting embedded into daily routines, where interactions now include payments and other actions that drive direct revenue.