At 5:00 PM today, Kevin Warsh will make his debut appearance at the Jackson Hole symposium as the new Fed Chair. Investors are on the lookout for subtle clues about the Fed’s policy direction, but no one’s expecting clear guidance on rates.

What Markets Expect from Warsh’s Speech

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley both say don’t hold your breath for a direct signal on the key rate. Warsh is likely to reaffirm the 2% inflation target, explain the move away from aggressive forward guidance, and focus on long-term shifts in Fed policy.

BofA’s latest survey shows 53% of fund managers expect a neutral tone, 31% are bracing for something hawkish, and just 7% see a dovish tilt coming.

Rate Market Odds Right Now

The FedWatch tool puts the odds of a rate hold in September at 65.9%, with a 34.1% chance of a 25 bps hike. Over the past week, the probability of at least one hike by year-end has jumped from about 65% to 75%.

Signals from Regional Fed Presidents

Some Fed officials are open to tightening if disinflation stalls out. Hammock says now’s the time to hike, warning inflation could hover near 3% through year-end. Schmidt points out the current rate isn’t really slowing down economic activity. Goolsbee urges caution, citing risks of inflation flaring up again. Collins says the base case is for inflation to gradually cool off, but a hike is still on the table if progress stalls.

Key Session Schedule

5:00 PM — Kevin Warsh’s headline speech.

5:30 PM — Panel on financial innovation and the international monetary system.

6:55 PM — Innovations in tokenized finance.

7:55 PM — Global perspectives on payment innovation (with heads of BIS, OECD, and IMF).

10:00 PM — Economist Kenneth Rogoff takes the stage.