Goldman Sachs analysts are now calling for the US Federal Reserve to raise its key interest rate by another 25 basis points in October. The bank updated its forecast after the Fed bumped its target range up to 3.75–4% and signaled ongoing inflation pressures. According to market watchers, there's about a 53% chance the Fed will make that move in October.

Goldman Sachs' New Forecast

In its latest outlook, Goldman Sachs is penciling in an extra 25bps of tightening from the Fed. The shift comes after the rate hike to 3.75–4% and hawkish signals from the central bank pointing to stubborn inflationary forces still at play.

How the Market Is Pricing It In

Consensus on the street is still split: traders are putting the odds of an October hike at roughly 53%. That reflects the tug-of-war between sticky inflation and the Fed's desire to avoid slamming the brakes too hard on the economy.

What It Means for Investors

Expectations of another hike are putting the spotlight on Fed commentary and upcoming inflation data. As policy tightens, financing conditions usually get tougher, which could keep risk appetite in check across markets—including crypto.