Fidelity analysts say Bitcoin’s August rally isn’t enough proof that the bear market is over. By their estimates, the bottom could’ve formed back in July, but if Bitcoin sticks to its historical cycles, another low might show up around November.

Fidelity’s Take

Fidelity points out that it’s way too early to call the end of this downtrend. The firm sees multiple possible price paths ahead and stresses that the timing of this cycle is still up in the air.

Where’s the Bottom?

Experts at Fidelity remind us that the last bear market bottomed out in November 2022. If Bitcoin keeps following its four-year rhythm, the next local low could land around this November. Still, there’s a chance July already marked the bottom.

How to Read the Signal

Fidelity cautions against using this model for pinpoint price predictions. The timing they’ve flagged is just an estimate and shouldn’t be seen as a crystal ball for Bitcoin’s next move.