On the eve of tomorrow’s Fed meeting, Wall Street’s biggest banks and research shops have dropped fresh takes on where the key rate could be heading in 2026. The range is all over the place—from a series of hikes totaling 50–75 bps, to a one-off cut in December.

50 bps Hike: The Consensus Play

A bunch of institutions are calling for a 50 bps rate hike by year-end, kicking off in September. That’s the base case for Barclays, BNP Paribas, Citi, HSBC, JPMorgan, Mizuho, Morgan Stanley, MPA Macro, MUFG, Nationwide, Nomura, Piper Sandler, Societe Generale, TD Securities, UBS, and Wells Fargo.

More Hawkish: 75 bps and One-Off Moves

The more aggressive take? Deutsche Bank and RBC are penciling in a total 75 bps hike by the end of the year, also starting in September. Bank of America expects a 75 bps increase—but stretched out through the end of 2026, starting in September. Goldman Sachs is going solo, projecting just a single 25 bps move in September.

Outlier Calls

Jefferies is going the other way, seeing a 25 bps rate cut in December. Oxford Economics isn’t expecting any rate changes in 2026 at all, and is looking for the first cut to come in 2027.

Heading Into the Fed Decision

The wide spread in forecasts shows just how uncertain the rate path is right now. For most banks, September is the anchor point for their outlooks, but tomorrow’s Fed meeting will set the tone for the rest of the year.