Right now, traders are pricing in this Fed rate path: a 25 bps hike on October 28, bringing the target to 4.00–4.25%; a hold on December 9; another 25 bps hike on January 27, taking it to 4.25–4.50%; and another pause on March 17.

What the Market Expects

Here’s how the market’s breaking it down by meeting: October 28 — +25 bps to 4.00–4.25%, December 9 — no move, January 27 — +25 bps to 4.25–4.50%, March 17 — pause. These are expectations priced in by the market, not actual Fed decisions.

Donald Trump’s Take

Donald Trump weighed in: “The interest rate should be 1% or lower, because we have the best credit in the world — by far.” He also claims: “Our country is booming from new investment! If we stopped trading with every country we have a trade deficit with, we’d make at least $1.5 trillion a year.” According to Trump, “deficit” is just “a trendy word for losses.” His bottom line: “Lower interest rates for the United States, and fast!”

Context

Earlier, there were references to K. Warsh’s remarks and Fed forecasts.