On Tuesday, CryptoQuant stated in its weekly report that the new BTC bull market is confirmed, with the $88–90K range set to be the "next real test" due to likely profit-taking. The key signal was the price recovery above the 365-day moving average at $80.5K.

Realized price for 1–3 month traders: $64.3K, "upper band" at $90.3K

The average acquisition price of coins moved on-chain 1–3 months ago is currently $64.3K. According to CryptoQuant, the "upper band" for profit-taking by this cohort is $90.3K, which is 40% above their realized price. This area coincides with the on-chain supply cluster at $88–90K, increasing the likelihood of selling if this level is reached.

Path to $90K mostly clear, pause is not a reversal

There are few barriers between the current spot price of around $86K and the potential profit-taking zone. Analysts believe that as the price approaches the "upper band," profit margins widen and selling may intensify—this is a natural pause in the uptrend, not a reversal signal. The report emphasizes that technical, valuation, and on-chain metrics all point in the same direction—upward.

Indicators: 365-day MA and MVRV signal end of bear phase

Bitcoin's MVRV has risen above its 365-day average—a development that previously accompanied the end of the 2018 and 2022 bear markets. It is also noted that during the 2026 bear phase, MVRV never fell below 1, meaning the aggregate investor base remained in profit.

Institutionalization smooths cycles, ETF inflows strengthen

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju believes that the shift of BTC ownership toward institutions will make future cycle peaks and troughs less pronounced: the forces limiting growth also cushion declines. New capital inflows remain strong: U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs attracted $1.7 billion in the first two days of the week, with Monday's inflow at $999 million—the highest since October 2025.