On September 15, the CLARITY Act failed a key procedural vote in the US Senate: 49 senators voted in favor, 50 against. The very next day, though, a House committee gave the bill its approval.

How the Market Priced In the Outcome

By the time the Senate vote happened, the bill’s defeat was probably already baked into prices. From July 1 to September 15, the odds of the CLARITY Act passing on Polymarket dropped from 39% to just 18%. In that same window, Bitcoin surged from $58,000 to $80,000.

What This Means for Crypto

Losing the procedural vote in the Senate doesn’t kill the push for crypto regulation, but it does highlight just how uncertain federal digital asset legislation still is. The way Polymarket odds shifted—and Bitcoin’s rally at the same time—shows that traders aren’t just betting on single votes. They’re watching the bigger picture and factoring in the broader mood around regulation.