The odds that the CLARITY Act will be signed into law in 2026 have dropped to 18% on Polymarket’s prediction market. This dip is happening as Republicans and Democrats remain at odds over the bill, fueling more uncertainty about its future.

What the Prediction Market Is Telling Us

Prices on prediction markets like Polymarket show the crowd’s consensus on the likelihood of an event. Right now, traders are giving the CLARITY Act just an 18% shot at being signed into law in 2026. That’s not a sure thing, but it’s a real-time read on sentiment and perceived political risk.

The Political Backdrop

With Republicans and Democrats unable to find common ground on the CLARITY Act, the path forward is anything but clear. The lack of bipartisan agreement is directly dragging down the odds of passage, which is exactly what’s playing out in Polymarket’s numbers.

Why This Metric Matters

Prediction market odds react fast to political headlines and public statements. Any shift in negotiations or the legislative agenda can move the needle, so traders—and crypto companies hungry for regulatory clarity—are watching this indicator alongside official news.