On Polymarket, traders are pricing in just a 7% chance that the CLARITY Act will get passed by 2026. That number sums up the current market mood about the bill making it through the legislative maze this year.

Context

The bill already failed to clear the US Senate. Despite that setback, people are still watching its next moves closely—but the consensus is that its odds of passing remain pretty slim.

How to Read This Signal

A 7% probability shows most traders are skeptical: they don't see the CLARITY Act becoming law before the end of 2026. These market odds can shift fast if lawmakers start making noise or take formal steps. Any procedural moves—big or small—could swing expectations either way.

What’s Next

The main things to watch are any official action on the bill and its spot on the legislative calendar. Until then, that 7% market price is the baseline for what traders expect from the CLARITY Act in 2026.