Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $83,000 on Monday, September 28, reaching a weekly low of $82,557 amid news of the US–Iran conflict. Despite the drop, BTC remains up more than 40% for the third quarter—its best Q3 since 2017 ahead of the quarter's close on Wednesday.

Weekly Close at $84,450 and Liquidity Clusters Limit Upside

After the highest weekly close since late January at $84,450, the price moved down to weekly lows. On lower timeframes, the addition and removal of orders in the order books are creating barriers to price movement: on Monday, around $30 million in sell orders accumulated near $85,700, after which the decline accelerated. According to Rekt Capital, defending the $82,500 level is critical for repeating the recovery pattern seen after the 2022 bear market.

Key Levels Above and Below Ahead of September and Q3 Close

September's monthly close and the Q3 quarterly close will take place on Wednesday near significant levels: above the current price are the 2026 yearly open at $88,700 and the average entry price for spot Bitcoin ETFs at around $86,000. Below are the average price for corporate balance sheets at $80,500, the True Market Mean at about $76,700, and the base of recent buyers (1–4 weeks) at $78,300, according to CryptoQuant.

Market Prices in 70% Chance of Fed Rate Hike in October

This week, key US data will be released: the August PCE index (expected at 3.6% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month) and September employment figures. The PCE is considered the Fed's "preferred" inflation indicator, as confirmed by Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium last month. The probability of a 0.25 percentage point rate hike in October has risen to 70.3%, up from 57.7% a week earlier. Expectations remain sensitive to the escalation of the US–Iran conflict; over the weekend, US President Donald Trump rejected another ceasefire proposal from Tehran.

With a gain of more than 40% for the quarter, this could be the best Q3 in nine years; the average BTC return in Q3 since 2013 has been 8.6%, while the average Q4 return is 77%.