Bitcoin (BTC) held above $83,000 on Thursday, giving back gains after the release of lower-than-expected US PCE inflation data—3.4% year-over-year for August. The previous rally had paused at $85,600.

Methodological Changes in PCE May Have Lowered the Figure

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that core PCE rose 3.0% year-over-year. The release included methodological revisions in the categories of portfolio management and investment advice, software and accessories, and legal services. According to The Kobeissi Letter, methodology alone may have reduced Core PCE by up to 20 basis points. July’s headline and core PCE were revised down by 30 basis points. In equities, the S&P 500 closed Wednesday at 7,651 points (-0.25%), and the Dow Jones was down 0.86%.

Open Interest in BTC Futures at Lowest Since March

Glassnode noted a divergence: since the August low, BTC’s price has risen 35%, while open interest in coins has dropped nearly 20%, reaching the lowest levels since March. Analysts believe this may make the rally less vulnerable to forced liquidations.

Start of Q4 and Liquidation Levels

According to CoinGlass, Bitcoin began Q4 around $83,550 after a 42.7% gain in the third quarter—its best Q3 performance since 2017. The liquidation map shows new clusters on both sides of the price; near $83,000, a cluster of about $60 million has formed, close to key support at $82,500, which is marked as a critical level for recovery from the June lows.

Fed Rate Market for October

The CME FedWatch tool on Wednesday estimated the probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in October at about 37%, with the market favoring no change to the 3.75%–4% range.