Bernstein analysts project that by 2035, annual turnover on prediction markets will reach $10 trillion, with 49% accounted for by contracts on financial assets compared to 38% for sports. For 2026, the volume is estimated at around $410 billion.

According to the estimate, the average annual growth rate from 2025 could be about 70%. Industry activity increased from around $50 billion in 2025 to $300 billion for January–August 2026. In 2025, sports made up 61% of prediction market turnover, while contracts on financial assets accounted for about 12%.

Financial Contracts Expand Share in 2026

Analysts attribute the shift in trading structure in 2026 to the growth of short-term contracts on cryptocurrencies and commodities, including 15-minute markets for bitcoin. At the same time, sports volumes surged during the World Cup and remained at record levels after the tournament. Further expansion of financial instruments is expected, including KPI markets that allow trading on individual corporate metrics, and the spread of perpetual futures on commodities and individual stocks. In April, Kalshi and Polymarket announced products for digital assets with plans to expand to other classes.

Kalshi Increased Market Share to ~60% in January–August

On Kalshi, the share of cryptocurrency contracts rose from less than 5% in January to about 20% in August. The turnover of commodity contracts increased from less than $2 million for all of 2025 to about $590 million since the start of 2026, of which $410 million was in August. The platform accounted for about 60% of total market volume for January–August, compared to 35% in 2025.

Polymarket: Sports 52% Since Start of 2026, Politics 22%

On Polymarket, sports contracts accounted for about 52% of global turnover since the start of 2026, compared to 39% in 2025. The share of politics declined from 32% to 22%, while cryptocurrencies made up about 21%.

Addressable Market: $700T in 2025 and $900T by 2035

Bernstein estimates the potential market for contracts on financial assets at about $700 trillion by the end of 2025, rising to $900 trillion by 2035. With prediction markets representing about 0.5%, financial contracts could provide roughly $4.7 trillion in annual turnover—almost half of the projected $10 trillion.

Regulation of sports contracts in the US remains a limiting factor: analysts do not expect final clarity before 2027–2028, amid conflicting court decisions on federal oversight of derivatives and state authority over gambling.