Anthropic has released a model outlining how artificial intelligence could shake up the U.S. economy by 2030. The report breaks down three possible futures—from a moderate impact similar to the rise of the internet, to a dramatic scenario where AI takes over nearly all cognitive work.

Three Paths to 2030

The scenarios range from a soft landing, where AI’s influence is on par with the so-called “internet effect,” to a full-blown overhaul of knowledge work. Anthropic’s take is that the future could land anywhere on this spectrum—from incremental productivity boosts to a fundamental shift in how intellectual labor is created and distributed.

Extreme Case: Up to 15% Annual GDP Growth

In the most radical scenario, the model suggests U.S. GDP growth could rocket up to 15% per year. But there’s a catch: this comes with a sharp decline in prospects for knowledge workers. On the flip side, the moderate scenario tracks with history, where tech speeds up productivity but doesn’t wipe out the need for humans in the loop.

Why It Matters

This report highlights just how wide the range of possible outcomes is for the U.S. economy by 2030. Which path we end up on will shape growth rates, who benefits from AI, and how much of our cognitive work stays human versus going full-auto.