Saifedean Ammous stated that bitcoin treasuries may not be able to compete with Strategy. According to its Monday 8-K report, the company holds the largest corporate bitcoin reserve—847,666 BTC acquired for $63.95 billion—and has $5.02 billion in cash for preferred share dividends and debt servicing.

Scale and Cash Reserve Lower Borrowing Costs

According to Ammous, Strategy’s large bitcoin holdings allow it to borrow at lower rates than smaller treasury companies, and previous downturns have not led to liquidations. He believes that even a deeper price decline would leave the company operational due to its cash reserves.

Summer Stress: STRC Below $100, Dividends Raised to 12%

During the summer, when bitcoin fell below $60,000, STRC preferred shares traded well below the $100 target price. In response, Strategy increased the annual STRC dividend rate to 12%, bought back shares, and boosted its cash reserve. The company also sold part of its bitcoin holdings to finance dividends and the STRC buyback, after which it resumed accumulating BTC.

Business Model With Excess Cash and Caution on Strategy Shares

Ammous believes that companies with positive cash flow can allocate excess cash to bitcoin as a long-term reserve and expects more firms to adopt this approach. However, he warns of the risks of investing in Strategy and prefers to hold bitcoin directly.

Ammous Estimates BTC Cycle Peak Possible in 2029

He believes the market has likely formed a bottom, though another decline cannot be ruled out. The next cycle peak, in his view, could occur in 2029, and he cites a price target of around $200,000 for 2030 based on a power law model, while noting this is not a guaranteed scenario.